Simulating Super Bowl XL

Written by Vadim Leonov  on February 03, 2006

Specials: If you put money on the Steelers to cover the 4 point Vegas spread, you might want to cancel your bet.

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Super Bowl XL. February 5th. Only a few days away. But thanks to me and my copy of Madden NFL '06, you don't have to watch the game on the big screen. For I have run a simulation of the game and I can predict everything that will happen this Sunday.

I was careful to make sure that everything was just right. Seahawks Ц away, Steelers Ц home, Steelers Ц wearing white jerseys just as they plan to, 12 minute quarters, All-Madden difficulty. Setting: Detroit, Michigan. As Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander strode onto the field for the coin flip, there was something eerily reminiscent of the Seattle-Green Bay match-up a few years back when Hasselbeck confidently said after winning the toss in overtime, УWe want the ball and we're gonna score.Ф Or something like that. But it doesn't matter because shortly thereafter Hasselbeck threw an interception for a TD and that was that for the Seahawks.

Back to reality. Seattle called tails and won the flip. The ensuing twenty-four minutes of football would probably make half of the television audience turn off their TV and the fans in Detroit to start booing both teams vehemently. Both teams started off slow but the Steelers managed to force their way within field goal range and Jeff Reed was able to hit a 29-yarder at the 8:13 mark in the first quarter. Four minutes later, Roethlisberger's errant pass was intercepted and returned 16 yards for a touchdown by Marcus Trufant. However, Shaun's Alexander's pulled muscle forced him out of the game after only 8 rushes for 6 yards, which undoubtedly changed the complexion of the entire game. The first quarter ended: Seattle 7, Pittsburgh 3.

The second quarter action was as tame as it gets in pro sports. The first ten minutes were flat out ugly. Other then a 22-yard outside run by Willie Parker, this quarter was characterized by a whole lot of nothing from both offenses, 5 sacks and a whole lot of dropped passes. Pittsburgh managed to cut the Seattle lead to 1 with a 36-yard field goal at the 7:26 mark. The following drive Pittsburgh managed to plow its way to a 1st and goal situation on the 3-yard line, yet after three consecutive runs they had to settle for yet another field goal at the 2:14 mark. Seattle shifted gear and had a formidable 2-minute drill, yet Josh Brown missed a 33-yard field with 3 seconds to go in the half. I noted that if the Seahawks lost by 3 or less, he might end up being one of the most hated kickers in the NFL after this seasons, right up there with the Redskins' John Hall and Indianapolis's very own Mike Vanderjagt. At half-time, the score was: Seattle 7, Pittsburgh 9.

I had expected an all-out smashfest, but this game slowly turned into a defensive battle. Heading into the second half, each team amassed roughly 150 yards of offense, and the ball control was in no one's favor, as Pittsburgh controlled the ball for 12:04, while Seattle had it for 11:56. If this didn't change quickly, I was about to turn my Xbox off. So I watched and I watched, and still nothing happened.

The third quarter was all about the three and outs. Super Bowl XL was turning into a XL disappointment. But with 1:17 to go in the third quarter, Hasselbeck finally connected with Bobby Engram for a 26-yard score, the game's first offensive touchdown. And with yet another Roethlisberger interception just seconds later, Seattle was knocking on the door and they could smell the Lombardi trophy, all polished and shiny. With the Seahawks with the ball and twenty yards away from the end zone, the third quarter ended: Seattle 14, Pittsburgh 9.

Just as I thought that Seattle was about to put the finish touches on this game, Hasselbeck releases at pass on the first play of the fourth quarter that it batted into the air by Joey Porter, bobbled, caught by him, and he ends up going 77 yards for a touchdown that gave Pittsburgh the 16-14 lead. After having hit three consecutive field goals in the first half, Pittsburgh's Jeff Reed missed a 35-yard four minutes later, which would have been huge for the Steelers. But he missed and Josh Brown came through with a 44-yarder up the middle at the 6:38 mark, and this tightly contested battle turned into a one point affair. Pittsburgh almost put together a nice drive with several passes to Hines Ward, but they punted the ball at the four minute mark, and Seattle answered right back with their own drive. The difference being that Matt Morris punched his way into the end zone with a four yard run.

With 2:45 left and Pittsburgh down by 8 with all three of their time-outs, they knew their season was on the line. Randle El caught a pass. Parker had a few nice runs. Ward caught a 20-yard pass on third down. Pittsburgh was knocking. But it happened again. With 1:15 to go, Roethlisberger pump faked, and threw it to Randle El. But it wasn't Randle El who came up with the ball. It was Michael Boulware and he ran it back 41 yards for the decisive score. Seattle 31, Pittsburgh 16. Final score.

Super Bowl XL was an ugly affair. Seattle managed 15 first downs, while Pittsburgh came up with 18. Both teams were horrible on third down: Seattle was 4 for 17, while Pittsburgh was 6 for 23. But it came down to interceptions and turnovers. Although Pittsburgh had a five-minute advantage clock-wise, Roethlisberger's four interceptions led to 14 points and this was too much to overcome. The Steelers had their chances too. Hasselbeck threw two interceptions and the Seahawks lost a fumble once, but Pittsburgh only scored 10 points off those turnovers.

Statistically, many players had decent games. Hasselbeck completed 18 of his 48 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions for a quarterback rating of 50.9 and 322 passing yards. Roethlisberger fared worse, as his four interceptions, no touchdowns and 22 for 55 performance gave him a quarterback rating of 24.8. The running game wasn't a huge component of this game, in part because of Alexander's early injury. Matt Morris filled in and had 17 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown, while Willie Parker quietly amassed 117 yards on 33 carries. Receiving-wise, Hines Ward caught 12 passes for 129 yards, Darrell Jackson was the player of the game with 9 catches for 167 yards, Bobby Engram managed 6 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown, while Randle El caught 5 passes for 75 (although he also dropped 5 more). Several other players had 2 catches or less. Nevertheless, Super Bowl XL belonged to the defense. The two teams combined for a forced fumble, 6 interceptions, 7 sacks and 3 touchdowns.

The outcome of this simulation may surprise some. It might anger others. Personally, I have a feeling that the Steelers won't get blown out like this. I have a feeling that Jerome Bettis might score a touchdown or two in what might be his last game. However, we won't know what will happen until Sunday. Until proven otherwise, this is exactly how the game will play out.

Enjoy Super Bowl XL and here's to a great season of football next year!

UPDATE: Looks like Madden will need to clean his crystal ball as Super Bowl XL ended with a final score of Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10. Congrats to the Steelers.

Now, who's ready for baseball season?