Special: Time to give the devil his due.
While a straight comparison of exclusives can tell us some things about the console war, it does not tell the whole story. Rule number three for the Exclusive Arms Race states that "Next-Gen exclusives will not be counted." It's a sound rule as the jump from PS2, Xbox and GC to PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii is not as pronounced as jumps in the past. The PS2 version of something will not be all that different from the Wii version and it most likely would not be radically different from the PS3 version.
So here's what a list of games that have appeared on only one next-generation console and at least one last-generation console would look like for each console:
Xbox 360 + Last-Gen Released (33)
2006 FIFA World Cup
Battlefield 2: Modern Combat
Burnout Revenge
Dynasty Warriors 5 Empires
FIFA 06: Road to FIFA World Cup
FIFA 07
Final Fantasy XI
Guitar Hero II
Gun
Hitman: Blood Money
Just Cause
King Kong
Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy
NBA 2K6
NBA Live 06
NBA Live 07
NCAA Football 07
Need For Speed: Most Wanted
NHL 07
NHL 2K6
Pimp My Ride
Samurai Warriors 2
Samurai Warriors 2 Empires
Superman Returns
Test Drive Unlimited
The History Channel: Civil War
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 06
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter
Tomb Raider: Legend
Tony Hawk's American Wasteland
UEFA Champions League 2006-2007
Winning Eleven: Pro Evolution Soccer 2007
X-Men
PlayStation 3 + Last-Gen Released (1)
NBA 07
PlayStation 3 + Last-Gen Uneleased (2)
MLB 07: The Show
Ninja Gaiden Sigma
Wii + Last-Gen Released (14)
The Ant Bully
Avatar: The Last Airbender
Barnyard
Chicken Little: Ace in Action
Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2
The Grim Adventures of Billy and Mandy
Happy Feet
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown
Medal of Honor: Vanguard
Metal Slug Anthology
Prince of Persia: Rival Swords
SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature from the Krusty Krab
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam
Wii + Last-Gen Unreleased (11)
Brothers in Arms: Double Time
Brunswick Pro Bowling
Driver: Parallel Lines
Heatseeker
High School Musical
Manhunt 2
Mercury Meltdown Revolution
Mortal Kombat: Armageddon
Pinball Hall of Fame: The Williams Collection
Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition
Scarface: The World is Yours
The Wii is the only next-gen home to close to two dozen of these games. So while these titles will also appear on the PS2, Xbox or GC now, that won't always be the case. The Wii will eventually reach a critical mass where it will be profitable for companies to create these games only for the Wii (and likely won't be making any extra money from a PS2 version). And if the Wii continues its phenomenal sales run, that critical mass could be reached by the end of the year. All of a sudden those "Wii + Last-Gen Exclusives" will just be "Wii Exclusives."
Others will say that this is faulty thinking and that gamers don't want to play games with a "last-generation" look. To that I say those gamers should look at the sales success of the Virtual Console, Xbox Live Arcade and PlayStation Network. With big sales numbers coming from games like Uno, Flow and Super Mario World, I'd question if high-definition, bump-mapped, pixel-shaded, 4D games are a "requirement".
This same situation is not true of the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3. Due to its head start, the 360 actually sports a lot of titles that are "next-gen exclusive." But, as you can see, the PS3 only has a small handful. Although, the system seems to be a victim of circumstance in this comparison as it's unlikely the PS3 or the Xbox 360 will add any new games to this list in the near future (except for some sports titles and an "enhanced port" or two).
Looking at these numbers from a business standpoint proves that gamers do not need cutting edge graphical tricks in
all of the games they play. The Wii will likely fill this niche with plenty of "low power" and quirky games that previously had a home on the PS2. Gamers looking for the next Katamari Damacy or Contra will most likely look to the Wii.
The most interesting aspect of this list is the disconnect between the "low-power" Wii and the "high-definition" Xbox 360 and PS3. There are lots of games that come out for the PS3 and Xbox 360 but not the Wii. Basically, any game that's not exclusive to one will come out on both. There are still plenty of titles that appear on all three thanks to megapublishers EA and Activision, but there is a very clear separation. In fact, there is only one game currently announced that will appear on the Wii and only one of the high-definition systems. That game is
Looney Tunes: Acme Arsenal, which is currently scheduled to come to the Wii and the Xbox 360.
So with this lack of cross-polination of titles between the systems, it creates the mentality that a gamer only needs two consoles to get almost everything. With the Xbox 360's massive list of exclusives (along with all of the Xbox 360/PS3 only titles) and the Wii filling in the low-power and quirky niche (along with a healthy batch of exclusives that are only possible with the Wiimote), the decision of which two consoles to buy becomes clear.
It's still not over, but history has taught us that a company that is slow to give gamers compelling reasons to purchase their machine (the N64, the GameCube and now maybe the PS3) will be left in the dust by the more nimble competitors.